|
"An executive who hedges his stock options is like the captain of a ship who sees an iceberg up ahead and heads for
his lifeboat without waking the sleeping passengers." - Business Week
FOREX MARKET
US rates pulled the greenback stronger as the market prices in another Fed hike, however the USD seems kind of
steamless. The bottom line of the "new image for the Fed" that Bernanke is trying to promote is one of more
transparency and more explicit inflation targeting which could cause higher volatility. We focus on the strong 1.1900
support level to see whether this can hold the line, as the EUR/USD already tested the 1.1950 level. Perhaps the US
trade numbers will be key for a firmer short-term view. However, we see the USD weaker eventually for the reasons
we have outlined before (slowing US economy, lower capital flows and continued global imbalances and the need for
central banks to seek USD alternatives for its reserves).
The EUR seems to be on a downward trend lately on the Romanian market, as the clients lost interest for purchasing
the hard currencies. The attractive yielding for the domestic currency determined by NBRs substantial draining
operations, could stimulate the interest of the speculative funds. The RON eroded the 3.5900 resistance level on
Tuesday and appreciated until 3.5800, the most. On February 8th, the opening quotes stood at 3.5830, however the
pair fell steeply until 3.5690 until noon. We believe that there is room for further appreciation of the local currency
as the RON interest rates might move even higher.
MONEY MARKET
The overnight interest rates moved even higher to the 8-9% area, as dealers expect that the NBR will increase the
intervention rate in today's board meeting. The National Bank is to decide the most appropriate monetary policy, so
that it could fight the expansion of CPI. The IMF sees Romania's headline inflation at 6.5% for 2006 as well as most
of the analysts, while the official target stands at 5%, +/- 1pps.
|
Domestic Markets Foreign Exchange Rates |
||||
|
NBR |
Daily Change |
Year to Date(%) |
Annualized |
|
|
EUR/RON |
3.5875 |
-0.0127 |
-9.55% |
-8.67% |
|
USD/RON |
2.9903 |
-0.0105 |
3.24% |
2.92% |
|
GBP/RON |
5.2326 |
-0.0343 |
-6.74% |
-6.11% |
|
CHF/RON |
2 3066 |
-0.0075 |
-10.26% |
-9.32% |
|
Interbank Market Interest Rates (%) |
||||
|
ON |
1M |
6M |
12M |
|
|
BUBID |
6.65% |
6.13% |
5.68% |
5.51% |
|
BUBOR |
8.06% |
7.91% |
7.88% |
7.63% |
|
LIBOR (EUR) |
2.35% |
2.39% |
2.70% |
2.90% |
|
LIBOR (USD) |
4.54% |
4.57% |
4.89% |
5.04% |
|
Romanian Equities |
||
|
Last |
Daily (%) |
|
|
BET |
8,484.30 |
2.52% |
|
BET-C |
4,970.94 |
2.11% |
|
BET-FI |
54,904.06 |
0.30% |
|
RASDAQC |
1,808.98 |
0.92% |
|
Romanian Eurobonds |
||||
|
Maturity |
Cupon |
Price |
Daily (%) |
Yield |
|
27-Jun-08 |
10.63% |
116.05 |
-0.09% |
3.43 |
|
02-Jul-10 |
5.75% |
107.94 |
0.03% |
3.76 |
|
06-May-12 |
6.50% |
125.31 |
0.14% |
3.84 |
|
22-Jun-15 |
4.125% |
98.04 |
-0.01% |
4.38 |
|
Romanian State Government Bonds and T-Bills |
||||
|
Latest issues |
Auction Date |
Issue Date |
Maturity Date |
Avg. Yield |
|
RO0510DBNI36 |
08 August 2005 |
10 August 2005 |
10 August 2010 |
7.48% |
|
RO0515DBN143 |
15 August 2005 |
17 August 2005 |
17 August 2015 |
7.49% |
|
RO0508DBN155 |
15 September 2005 |
19 September 2005 |
19 September 2008 |
7.60% |
|
RO0505CTN031 |
20 September 2005 |
22 September 2005 |
22 December 2005 |
5.33% |
|
International Equities |
||||
|
Last |
Daily Change |
Year Low |
Year High |
|
|
S&P500 |
1,254.78 |
-0.81% |
1,176.84 |
1,294.18 |
|
DJI |
10,749.76 |
-0.45% |
10,793.62 |
10,953.95 |
|
NASDAQ |
2,244.96 |
-0.61% |
2,205.32 |
2,331.36 |
|
XETRADAX |
5,649.60 |
0.00% |
5,323.87 |
5,726.53 |
|
NIKKEI 225 |
16,272.68 |
-2.68% |
11,414.28 |
16,747.76 |
|
International Market Exchange Rates |
||
|
CURRENCY |
Latest |
Daily Change |
|
EUR/USD |
1.1966 |
-0.03% |
|
GBP/USD |
1.7437 |
-0.22% |
|
USD/CHF |
1.2971 |
-0.29% |
|
USD/SEK |
7.7619 |
-0.25% |
|
USD/JPY |
117.89 |
-0.82% |
|
EUR/USD trading rate |
|||
|
Support |
Resistance |
||
|
Sup. 1 |
1.1940 |
Res. 1 |
1.2050 |
|
Sup. 2 |
1.1900 |
Res. 2 |
1.2110 |
|
Sup. 3 |
1.1800 |
Res. 3 |
1.2190 |
|
Sup. 4 |
1.1720 |
Res. 4 |
1.2220 |
|
Commodities |
||
|
Latest |
Daily (%) |
|
|
GOLD |
548.1 |
-3.94% |
|
SILVER |
9.3 |
-4.81% |
|
OIL (BRENT) |
61.38 |
-2.66% |
|
Interest Rates for Time Deposits of Finansbank (Romania) SA |
|||||||
|
1WK |
1M |
3M |
6M |
9M |
12M |
Minimum Amount |
|
|
USD |
0.50% |
3.00% |
3.50% |
4.25% |
4.25% |
4.50% |
USD 1,000 |
|
EUR |
0.50% |
3.00% |
3.50% |
4.00% |
4.25% |
4.25% |
EUR 1,000 |
|
RON |
1.00% |
5.0% |
5.5% |
5.5% |
5.5% |
6.00% |
RON 2,000 |
Released by FINANSBANK Romania S.A., Splaiul Unirii no.12, Bl. B6 040034, Bucharest. For further information please contact Melania Hancila Treasury & Capital Markets Division, Phone 301 73 42, Fax 318 09 61.
Disclaimer: This report does not represent an investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in any kind of investment vehicle. The information in the report is based on sources available to the public and believed to be reliable, and there is no claim that is accurate or complete. Thereafter this information can be changed without notice.
Publicat de FINANSBANK Romania S.A., Splaiul Unirii nr.12, Bl. B6 040034, Bucuresti. Pentru mai multe informatii si intrebari, va rugam contactati Departamentul Trezorerie si Piete de capital - Melania Hancila, Telefon: 301 73 42, Fax: 318 09 61.
Acest buletin are scop informativ si nu reprezinta un sfat sau recomandare de a investi in nici un tip de instrument. Informatiile care stau la baza acestui raport zilnic au o sursa publica, considerata sigura insa, nu sustinem ca este completa. Astfel ca informatiile publicate mai sus se pot schimba fara un anunt prealabil.