"Knowledge is proud she knows so much; wisdom is humble that she knows no more. " - Cowper

FOREX MARKET
In the past week, the greenback triggered an impressive rally against euro despite recent weak data on US economy and broke important psychological supports. The USD bulls took the EUR/USD until 1.2650 level, however we remain cautious on this rollercoaster ride of the dollar, as it might be just a correction before a real rise of the euro or it might set the new direction to the downwards. We expect further tightening from the ECB in the medium run, however no more than one hike until the end of 2006, while Fed's rate might be at its top level. The pair is traded in the 1.2700 zone around noon in the European session. Romania's headline inflation decelerated to 6% at the end of August, as the consumer prices dropped by 0.1% during the month. Romania records deflation for the first time since the post communist period. The very good evolution of the CPI in 2006 increases the chances that the National Bank will reach the upper band of its inflation target. The edible goods prices were the only category which decreased in August due to the recovery of the agriculture this year and it is likely to support the disinflation process in the coming months. However, we should not loose sight of the twin deficits which are likely to affect the CPI evolution in the last quarter of 2006. Until now, the budget deficit target of the government (2.5% of GDP) was just a project, but in Q4 it will become an inflationary reality, while the current account gap is likely to speed up the increasing pace.
The Romanian currency strengthened towards the end of the week, on back of higher demand coming from corporative clients. Probably, the improvements in Romania's sovereign ratings had stirred the interest of foreign investors towards our country, as the seasonal remittances had been replaced by investment inflows. The single currency closed the week in the 3.5200 zone. Ron continued to appreciate against its peer on Monday as well, the more so as the euro is facing general weakness on all markets. The EUR/RON exchange rate dropped until 3.5120 zone and it seems to be heading smoothly the 3.5000 area.

MONEY MARKET
The overnight rates moved upwards by 25 bps to 8.5-9.5% zone due to the usual Monday depo auction of NBR.